The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
Rediff reports on the reasons behind this dramatic shift.
Essential and strategic items such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products like oil, gas, coal and LNG are exempted from the 27 per cent import duty announced by the US on Wednesday, according to think tank GTRI.
Indian drugmakers supply 47 per cent of the generic medicine requirements in the US, and tariffs would have increased prices in the US domestic market for patients, who are already dealing with drug shortages.
Unless something changes, Mr Trump is a huge threat right now, which is perhaps not being recognised fully, cautions Debashis Basu.
The 'mediation' by the United States from behind the scene on the diplomatic track appears to be once again working, which calls on both Delhi and Islamabad to show restraint and pull back from a military confrontation, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Singapore's long-ruling People's Action Party (PAP), led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, has secured a landslide victory in the country's general election. The PAP won 87 of 97 seats, with voters endorsing the party's focus on stability and economic security amidst global uncertainties. Wong expressed gratitude for the strong mandate and vowed to tackle concerns about the cost of living and housing. The results mark a significant win for the PAP, which has been in power since Singapore's independence in 1965.
China's size and ambition have enabled it to successfully penetrate every sector of the UK's economy, an influential parliamentary panel has said, warning that Beijing's national imperative continues to become a technological and economic superpower on which other countries are reliant, which represents the "greatest risk" to the UK.
US Vice President J D Vance and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz are scheduled to visit India on April 21, reflecting Washington's focus on strengthening its relationship with India amidst global concerns over President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Vance's visit is likely to be more of a private trip, while Waltz's visit will be a business trip with discussions on security in the Indo-Pacific region, high technology, critical minerals, and export controls. Both are expected to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi before his trip to Saudi Arabia. The visits come in the wake of Trump's recent pause on tariffs on all countries except China, following widespread economic concerns.
This has also raised concerns over undetected infiltrations from across the Line of Control and terrorists potentially residing in the outskirts of cities and villages, they said.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
The Indian Navy, which regards itself as the 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region, has also stepped up to the plate, with a warship stationed at all times off the Gulf of Aden for counter-piracy tasks. 91 Indian warships have been deployed in the region since 2008, patrolling high risk areas where piracy was rampant.
Soon after he was sworn in by Vice President J D Vance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Penny Wong from Australia and Japan's Iwaya Takeshi for his first multilateral meeting as the top American diplomat.
India must integrate more with East Asia by getting into regional trade arrangements, lower its tariff walls, and improve the quality of its workforce, suggests T N Ninan.
'He may respect others, but he is unlikely to admire them'
Notably Trump had withdrawn from the Paris Agreement immediately after his first inauguration in January 2017. Joe Biden reversed that decision later.
After the 1962 War with China, there was a demand to forge greater defence cooperation between India and the West. One such voice was that of Sudhir Ghosh, a distinguished MP, to tie up strategic cooperation with the USA immediately after the Chinese attack on India, recalls Rup Narayan Das.
'Had Haji Pir and/or Skardu been taken, the message would have gone out not just to General Asim Munir and his cohort in the Pakistan army but to the Pakistani people that every terrorist incident in India would lead to substantial loss of territory in PoK.'
India and New Zealand have signed a pact to institutionalize their defence ties and vowed to boost cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised concerns about anti-India activities by some illegal elements in New Zealand with his Kiwi counterpart Christopher Luxon. The two sides also signed six agreements to enhance cooperation in areas including education, sports, agriculture, and climate change. They also agreed to prepare a roadmap for cooperation in the defence industry sector and explore early implementation of cooperation in the digital payments sector.
India's stock markets corrected recently but foreign money is likely to chase China rather than India in the short-to-medium term, said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, on Thursday. Wood told the Business Standard Manthan Summit in New Delhi he is bullish about Indian equities from a long-term perspective, but for the short term he is cautious given the quantum of foreign investor (FII) outflows and valuation woes.
'If Pakistan's army wants to escalate violence in Kashmir, they have an unlimited supply of jihadis they can train and send. That's not an issue for them.'
The external affairs minister also recalled how Pandit Nehru was hesitant in taking assistance from the United States following the 1962 war with China as he was unsure how it would be seen.
Any miscalculation and miscommunication are fraught with the risk of a major catastrophe, warns Rup Narayan Das.
It's time India re-visited its Western alliances for the attitude and approach that the West reserves for the nation when it comes to security cooperation of the kind that they might not have visualised outside of China, India's bug-bear, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has arrived in Beijing for a two-day visit during which he will hold talks with Chinese officials. The visit comes amid ongoing efforts to de-escalate tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and to resume bilateral cooperation in various fields, including the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
United States President Donald Trump on Sunday criticised the trade deficits that the US has with Canada, Mexico, China, and argued that America should no longer 'subsidise' other countries, and urged businesses to manufacture domestically to avoid tariffs.
A leading expert predicts that the incoming Trump administration will likely continue its pro-India policies, including the Indo-Pacific strategy and Quad, but highlights potential challenges such as trade disagreements, immigration issues, and a possible quid pro quo for technology sharing. The expert also notes that the Trump 2.0 administration may prioritize great power politics over strategic altruism, potentially impacting human rights and religious freedom concerns.
Gold prices inched closer to the psychological mark of Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams as the bullion rates surged Rs 1,650 in the national capital on Monday on weak dollar and uncertainties over US-China trade war driving demand. According to the All India Sarafa Association, the yellow metal of 99.9 per cent purity reached Rs 99,800 per 10 grams on Monday. Its value had declined Rs 20 to close at Rs 98,150 on Friday.
Although the special relationship might compel Bhutan to be considerate of Indian interests, new challenges will likely arise. An emerging new phase of relations will also call for fresh redlines between India and Bhutan, observe Harsh V Pant and Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy.
Trump on February 1 had announced tariffs on major US trading partners Canada, Mexico and China. He imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10 per cent on goods from China.
Biden has been under attack from his opponents and the Republican Party for his immigration policies as hundreds and thousands of illegal immigrants enter the United States every month.
The two sides are also likely to firm up a currency swap framework and seal several other agreements including one on debt restructuring following talks between Modi and Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Disanayaka on April 5, people familiar with the matter said.
India on Saturday pulled off a big diplomatic win after the G20 summit held under its presidency adopted a consensus declaration overcoming major differences on the Russia-Ukraine war, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for ending the "global trust deficit".
Insurgents opened fire on a passenger train in Pakistan's Balochistan province, injuring the driver and prompting security guards aboard the train to fire back. The attack occurred in the Bolan district on the Jaffar Express from Quetta to Peshawar. The train was stopped by armed men in Tunnel No 8, and efforts are being made to contact the passengers and staff. The Balochistan government has ordered emergency measures and all institutions remain active.
India-Turkiye ties are strained over Ankara's Islamabad tilt, its arms links with Pakistan, and fallout from the Pahalgam terror attack.
India is trying hard to erase Indonesia's wariness about New Delhi, building security cooperation in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. If Indonesia decides to buy the Brahmos missile, it would further strengthen relations between the world's most populous nation and the most populous Islamic country.
'No Cold War should be reignited and no Ukraine-style crisis should be repeated in Asia'
Jaishankar described as a "reasonable supposition" to expect some improvement in the relations between India and China following the last round of disengagement but hesitated to say that there could be a reset of the ties.
